14th Anniversary of the 2000 top (amazing how time flies), and pretty close to the 5th anniversary of the 2009 bottom. Buffet's supposedly favorite valuation metric for the overall market, 'Total market cap to GDP' on friday was 118% or "significantly overvalued" with US stocks priced for a 1.6% annual return over the next 10 years. http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.phpValuation isn't much use for short term timing, though. Grantham in his latest letter gave a wild a$$ guess that we might go another couple of years higher with the Fed at our backs but that you stand a chance of being bushwhacked.The next bullish year three in GMO's presidential cycle starts in Oct 2015. Could this bull run hang around that long?? 2008 teaches us not to put too much faith in bullish year threes.I got lucky timing the last bubble and bottom. Not expecting lightning to strike twice, I plan to stay mostly invested this time in long term accounts, though I've raised dry powder. The longer I do this the less confident I am in timing. Paul Samuelson supposedly once quipped, 'Market timing is a sin, but everyone should sin a little.'
I gave up on timing a few years ago and just started buying good stocks and indexes. Empirically, I'm a much better passive investor. I do try to keep some cash aside, so I suppose I am timing the market a little, but I've mostly tried to build a collection of stocks that will hopefully be more durable than average during the next downturn.
P.S. We had some great times on this board back then, even if I lost all my money :). It's fun to scroll back to then and see what we were talking about.
If you don't mind my crashing your scene here, just wanna say in responseto your "we had some great times on this board back then", Here here!!!That was one of those magical times in a weirdly new little magical 'pocket' where we all gathered every single weekday morning and rode thruthe day's cycle with one another. I've also peeked back at it from timeto time -- like opening a time capsule -- and, as you mention, I also 'lost all my money'. I mean, I REALLY lost all my money. Or, maybe I just paid an eNORMous fee each year to have so much fun in mingling with other 'had-no-business-being-here' traders. (Except Jazbo, of course). Anyway .. my god .. how time flies ..
How could you crash this scene? You're a part of the scene!
Oh! THANK you Sir! It just seems like so much has changed since back then thatI now sorta feel like a total stranger in the town I grew up in!Now the town of Grierwhafa.But thanks again, I definitely was, once-upon-a-time, a part of the scene! :->
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