Have you tried to calculate the business value of the insurance operations, basing it on comparable businesses, not on investments +/- float?This is an interesting approach but I have not pursued it except in the case of Progressive which I think is a good comparable for GEICO. Most of Berkshire's reinsurance subsidiaries operate on a principle of enormous capital strength which makes Berkshire the provider of choice for primary insurers. The question is what level of "enormous capital strength" is required for Berkshire's reinsurance operations to enjoy the pricing and market share that they command in the marketplace? How much capital can be withdrawn from the insurance subsidiaries without eroding this advantage? There could be reasonable assumptions one could make to at least ballpark the valuation of the insurance operations versus comparable insurers by making assumptions regarding capital that is truly "excess" - meaning that it could be withdrawn without impacting market perceptions. But without thinking about it much more I'm not sure exactly how to go about such an exercise.
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