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Author: ultrabrite Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 551  
Subject: Re: Flextronics Follows the Vertical Leader Date: 9/24/2006 10:25 PM
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Hello Tim:

I've been watching this company for the last 2 years but I really don't have a lot of insight into it. I like the fact it sells for a market capitalization roughly half of its annual revenue and that it appears to be enjoying increased demand for its services. However I had bought some shares at a price of $13.33 in June 2005 and I ended up taking a loss on them. After the shares dropped sharply in October 2005 I bought more under $10 and was able to sell those shares for around $12.

It looks like I missed a nice opportunity to pick up more shares around $10 back in July 2006 when the whole market was dropping and I thought the shares might go even lower. This company has gone through a bunch of ups and downs over the last couple of years. The current guidance looks good and the shares have been doing well since the JUly 25th earnings report. However I really don't know if this is as good as it gets or if this is merely a prelude to greater growth and profitability down the road.

I took a look at the 3 year weekly chart and it looks like FLEX might be on the verge of breaking out of the downtrend since early 2004. Here is a link to the chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FLEX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52962699566

The 260 week moving average is now at $13.08 - any close above that line would be positive in my opinion. There may even be a head and shoulders formation with a neckline around $12 - if that is accurate then the shares should be heading to $15. (I hope my lack of confidence in these predictions shows. I don't currently hold any shares.)

There is not much discussion of FLEX on these boards and I think that instead of rushing out to buy some shares I am going to enter it as a selection on the new "Caps" service and see how it does. I have heard a lot of good things about Hon-Hai Precision Industries but as far as I know it is not offered as an ADR on a US exchange. I think the best bet for me right now would be to buy into some sort of exchange traded fund that concentrated on this industry and that also included a nice percentage of Hon-Hai in the protfolio...

Hope this helps,

JT :-)
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