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any advice would be appreciated

is there a clear winner here?
assuming i'll hold the house for a long time

30 yr fixed loan at 8.5% with one point (break even point for point is about 4 years as fat as i can tell)
7 year fixed 7.75% with one point (margin 2.5, cap 11 or 12%)
and hope for cheaper refinance
arm with 1.875 % margin and .5 point


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