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Author: jayseae Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 2601  
Subject: Re: Internet business model Date: 2/13/2002 11:04 PM
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henrypeter:
The only reason for the statement about TV screens is that, other than computer games, most of the conjectured "killer apps" that I hear about seem more likely to be enjoyed on a TV screen than on a PC.

I'm not so sure, Henry. I think that the convergence of the PC, TV, VCR, DVR, game console, stereo, and any other "entertainment" device you can imagine is closer than most think. Maybe I'm just too far out on the cutting edge, but I recently (< 6 months) purchased a used presentation projector from eBay, and have it hooked up to a computer and to a VCR (and my stereo) in the living room. Everything I watch now is life-size or larger. I still do my computing on a (relatively) small 17" monitor in the office, but I can visualize a day when all these boxes are one and the same.

Now imagine all these fancy new computers running at 2Ghz+ - most home users probably don't have much need for that, the way things are now. But what happens when you add voice recognition to the mix? I think we'll need speed all over again. And it will be the last barrier to bringing computing to the masses. Still a need now for a certain aptitude to run the computer in a way in which it influences life on a daily basis - typing, mousing, etc. Voice recognition will eliminate that barrier. Couple it with personal agents that do things for you and communicate with each other without ever involving you and you're talking one heck of a networked world.

A single pipe could come into the house, be it cable or DSL (my money would be on cable at the moment, as I've had crappy results with DSL), and deliver most anything to your home media center (HMC), which would then distribute it as necessary - to the "TV", the "computer", the "toaster". Seems to me the distinction between video (cable or broadcast TV, movies, etc), audio (CDs, radio, etc) and computer is blurring rapidly, and will continue to do so.

That will drive bandwidth consumption like crazy. The tough question becomes how to invest in it. I can see half a dozen "killer" apps in the scenario I just laid out. However, with none of them do I see where to make the money. I think it quite likely that we'll see the solid component and system providers move into a more standard company image, and in fact they might fade to black in the background. After all, how many folks out there can tell me who made money on the telephone buildout?

Easy answer for that one: the carriers. Sure, there were suppliers that undoubtedly made some money. But I will bet you most anything that the dollars came from the services, not the infrastructure. I know this is contrary to everything we talk about here. But I think it's the most realistic vision for the moment. The go-go days of the beginning of the fiber buildout are likely gone for the foreseeable future. It'll probably be something else that's hot for a day, week or month that tops the charts next...

Your own mileage may vary of course, these are just some late-night ramblings of yours truly. :)

Chad.
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