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Author: ravvt Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75777  
Subject: Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Date: 7/19/2007 11:55 PM
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Here are a few articles that you may find useful ...


http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2001_Issues/jfp0201-art11.cfm

Dynamic Rebalancing
by Gerald R. Weiss, PFP, CFP

Dynamic rebalancing is a technique that uses the fixed income portion of the client’s retirement portfolio for cash flow withdrawals during stock market declines, to avoid the "feeding the bear" phenomenon. During favorable market periods, dynamic rebalancing reverts to annual rebalancing. In this article, Monte Carlo simulation will be used to investigate whether dynamic rebalancing can add portfolio lifespan for a given initial withdrawal rate or increase the retirement portfolio’s value for target longevity.




http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2006_Issues/jfp0306-art6.cfm

Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates
by Jonathan T. Guyton, CFP®, and William J. Klinger

Executive Summary

- This paper uses stochastic (Monte Carlo) analysis to test the decision rules established by co-author Jonathan Guyton (Journal of Financial Planning, October 2004), which established higher initial withdrawal rates than reported in previous research. Investment return and risk modeling are based on two different investment data periods: 1973–2004 (to match Guyton 2004) and 1928–2004.

- The paper tests three equity allocations: 50 percent, 65 percent, and 80 percent.

- The paper develops confidence standards to measure the probability of sustaining an initial withdrawal rate for at least 40 years and the percentage of purchasing power maintained during the withdrawal period.

- The paper retains the portfolio management and withdrawal rules from the original work, and eliminates the inflation rule (which caps annual inflationary adjustments).

- It develops two new decision rules—the capital preservation rule and the prosperity rule—which act as "financial guardrails" when market conditions cause the initial withdrawal rate to rise or fall significantly.

- The paper concludes that initial withdrawal rates of 5.2–5.6 percent are sustainable at the 99 percent confidence standard for portfolios containing at least 65 percent equities. The 80 percent equity allocation provides greater purchasing power maintenance at slightly lower success rates, but with 50 percent equities, maximum initial withdrawal rates drop to as low as 4.6 percent.

- The two data periods provide virtually identical results.· Consistently applying the two new decision rules effectively eliminates the risk of exhausting retirement assets.



http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2001_Issues/jfp1101-art12.cfm

The Problems with Monte Carlo Simulation
by David Nawrocki, Ph.D.

Monte Carlo simulation has enjoyed a resurgence in financial literature in recent years. This paper explores the reasons why implementing Monte Carlo simulation is very difficult at best and can lead to incorrect decisions at worst. The problem is that the typical assumption set used in Monte Carlo simulation assumes normal distributions and correlation coefficients of zero, neither of which are typical in the world of financial markets. It is important for planners to realize that these assumptions can lead to problems with their analysis. Financial planners will find that exploratory simulation provides equivalent or better answers and is simpler to implement without assumptions.




If you want to give it a try for yourself, here is a link for a $29 Monte Carlo calculator that allows a free 30day trial ...

http://www.effisols.com/mcretire/index.htm
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