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Here are my assumptions for Berkshire's future cost of float which I peg at -0.8%...
It is possible that I'm being way too conservative here but I've been burned with overly bullish float based valuation assumptions in the past.

I agree that the goal is to pick the number that's at the most conservative
end of the "probably right" range. Your -.8% sounds fine on that count.
I'm still comfy with my -1.4% since it's only 40% as good as the 9 year average,
but it's not defensible to the 100% confidence level.
There will be a $20 billion loss year some time, so it's just a matter
of trying to estimate how often that will happen.

One bullish note: I'm still amazed they turned an underwriting profit last year given the catastrophes seen.
That's a very big switch from 2002 which was a 1.2% cost of float with no megacats.
You don't have to be glassy-eyed optimist to suspect that Gen Re was a supertanker
that took a few years to turn, but is now definitely headed in the right direction.

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