Here are my assumptions for Berkshire's future cost of float which I peg at -0.8%...It is possible that I'm being way too conservative here but I've been burned with overly bullish float based valuation assumptions in the past. I agree that the goal is to pick the number that's at the most conservativeend of the "probably right" range. Your -.8% sounds fine on that count.I'm still comfy with my -1.4% since it's only 40% as good as the 9 year average,but it's not defensible to the 100% confidence level.There will be a $20 billion loss year some time, so it's just a matterof trying to estimate how often that will happen. One bullish note: I'm still amazed they turned an underwriting profit last year given the catastrophes seen.That's a very big switch from 2002 which was a 1.2% cost of float with no megacats.You don't have to be glassy-eyed optimist to suspect that Gen Re was a supertanker that took a few years to turn, but is now definitely headed in the right direction.Jim
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