Here are some quick notes from a second listen:Don Coxe conference callcommodities story is graudually changing and starting to improveplaces strenght in IBD equity groups, believes it is a better forecaster than economic metricsrelative rank over last 6 monthsmetal ores, gold and silver number one grouptop twenty has seen a big change, five are commodity related, though his list seemed to include top thirty.Sees parallels to '74-75TED spread is way down, VIX is downeither stockmarket is wrong or there is already a change.Base metals have been stronger due to “ sovereign-fund” buying by Korea and Chinabelieve commodity stocks will outperform from herestrongest group going in, lead downturn and therefore want to see if whole story has changed or whether as in '74-'75 this is a pause in bigger trend.Ag stocks showing strengthThis time around I gave up listening at that point It was mainly technical mumbo-jumbo; commodity stock prices are firming so everything is looking rosy. I changed my view as I think it is now late in the recession and just like I missed shorting BHP in the $40s I missed going long in the low $20s. I don't have any strong conviction now, except that there appears to be much better risk/reward opportunities out there than BHP.While I continue to dislike BHP I don't have the conviction to fight the tape.Was this my most idiotic post yet? I think so.
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