Hi guys,Excerpt from "Summary of the Bearish Case" at www.lenderimplode.com."If history is any guide, a hard landing or recession is highly probable. In the past, recessions have occurred under the following circumstances:1. Whenever GDP growth was below 3% annualized for 5 consecutive qtrs.2. When the Fed tightened monetary policy(8 of the last 10 times).3. When the yield curve was inverted(6 of the last 7 times).4. When the Conference Board Leading Indicators were 0.5% or more below a year earlier(9 of the last 10 times).5. When new building permits were 25% or more below a year earlier(7 of the last 9 times).6. Whenever payroll employment growth dropped to 1.4% over a year earlier.All of the above have now occurred...."rk
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