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Author: loveoldcars Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35383  
Subject: Here it comes Date: 6/17/2007 1:24 PM
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Hi guys,

Excerpt from "Summary of the Bearish Case" at www.lenderimplode.com.

"If history is any guide, a hard landing or recession is highly probable. In the past, recessions have occurred under the following circumstances:

1. Whenever GDP growth was below 3% annualized for 5 consecutive qtrs.
2. When the Fed tightened monetary policy(8 of the last 10 times).
3. When the yield curve was inverted(6 of the last 7 times).
4. When the Conference Board Leading Indicators were 0.5% or more below a year earlier(9 of the last 10 times).
5. When new building permits were 25% or more below a year earlier(7 of the last 9 times).
6. Whenever payroll employment growth dropped to 1.4% over a year earlier.

All of the above have now occurred...."

rk
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