Here's a link to the Business Week article.http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_28/b40920529...One problem I see with Kitces' analysis is that for any given P/E or P/E10 over the last 130 years you'll have at least 3 or 4 data points from a 4% SWR to a 11% SWR. For example, when the PE10 at the start of retirement was 14 we have 4 data points from 4.25% to 9.75%. How does the retiree know if he is in the PE=14 environment that supports an 9.75% SWR versus the one that will only support a 4.25% SWR? That's why no matter how many contortions people go through to boost their SWR, when you compare it to the historical record, you still end up with about 4%. http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/pestudy1.html intercst
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