UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (79) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: intercst Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 59131  
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 1:17 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 2
Here's a link to the Business Week article.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_28/b40920529...

One problem I see with Kitces' analysis is that for any given P/E or P/E10 over the last 130 years you'll have at least 3 or 4 data points from a 4% SWR to a 11% SWR. For example, when the PE10 at the start of retirement was 14 we have 4 data points from 4.25% to 9.75%. How does the retiree know if he is in the PE=14 environment that supports an 9.75% SWR versus the one that will only support a 4.25% SWR? That's why no matter how many contortions people go through to boost their SWR, when you compare it to the historical record, you still end up with about 4%.

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/pestudy1.html

intercst
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (79) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement