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Hey Denny...
You had me with you right until this line...
While Intel has concentrated on processing speed ARM has concentrated on low power consumption while increasing the processing capacity.
From what I have seen, Intel has been almost single focused on power consumption for the past ten years or so.


Guilty as charged! That's what happens when you ignore the fact that really knowledgeable Fools are reading your posts! I was going to include it but figured no one would catch me! LOL

Here are the current Intel phone benchmarks... now you need to show me some ARM server benchmarks:-) All of these phones are based on the Intel medfield SOC (system on a chip).

Sorry, I can't, I don't follow the industry that closely anymore.

Intels entry strategy here is very interesting. They have done the complete phone design and lined up manufacturers as well.

That's what Intel did in the PC business when Wintel had an 80% market share. Some, like Compaq, fought back and lost to those like Dell who went along. But Intel does not have an 80% market share of mobile or smartphones. Of course, there is a market for Intel's product, the carriers whose interest is not providing the best phone experience but grabbing market share with cheap phones possibly as a loss leader. This is again a replay of a strategy that kept Motorola from making heaps of money on the original cell phone. Geoffrey Moore comments on it in The Gorilla Game:

"Compaq has been a king in PC servers, having traditionally held a two-times lead over Hewlett-Packard and IBM, although that lead has never been safe. Seagate is a king in hard disk drives, 3COM in Ethernet cards, US Robotics in modems, and Motorola in cell phones and pagers. All of these companies lead their respective markets, but none has the power to manipulate a de facto standard, and none enjoys high switching costs. Thus Motorola, despite its 50% market share in cell phones, is under severe margin pressure from the cellular access providers who threaten to substitute another vendor's product for their free-phone offer to their customers." Page 63.

Note that most of these kings are gone. In the Wintel duopoly it is my contention that most of the gorilla power came from "Win" and only in the hardware end did the "tel" have effect. Since then, Apple switched Mac hardware three times (M680x0 -> PowerPC -> Intel) showing there is no hardware gorilla power anymore. In mobile it's Intel vs. in-house design. Carriers will go with Intel. Smartphone makers will go with in-house design.

What will smartphone and tablet buyers buy? Figure that one out and you'll make lots of money. Of one thing you can rest assured, the gorilla power of the PC days has been strongly eroded. "Computers" have been commoditized.

Denny Schlesinger
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