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Author: mungofitch Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 211977  
Subject: Re: Still cheap at 4 year high Date: 10/4/2012 1:09 PM
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Hey, rational--

Remember that long flat spot Q4 2006 through Q2 2007 that Berkshire traded at almost exactly $110000?
What would (did) you peg fair value at at say end Q2 2007?

I'm just realizing how much my views appear to have changed. Dumb anchoring, or newfound wisdom?
I was convinced the the $110k was getting more and more preposterous, loading
up like an overwound spring, based on the idea that firm was worth maybe
$135k+ back then, the range in which I started lightening up later in the year.
But that figure represents 1.9 times the end-Q2 2007 book.
In December I noted that the "expected" price based on long run historic average
price to IV ratio would suggest one should expect to see a market price (not IV) of $131500.
http://boards.fool.com/the-price-26153807.aspx
That's 1.70 times the then latest reported Q3 book.

Needless to say, figures like 1.7x and 1.9x are a lot higher than the
1.5x we now holde as a distant "some day" stretch goal!

Of course price/book is a pretty crude value metric, not really good enough.
I'm happy discussing it these days because the choice of valuation
methodology doesn't change the conclusion at times of serious undervaluation.
When we get closer to IV we can be a bit more discerning about valuation models!

Jim
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