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Author: TMFRedwood Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 89  
Subject: Re: Cresud Inc. (Nasdaq: CRESY) Date: 9/3/2008 8:47 AM
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Hey Rich,

Great point and I should have made that more clear. Last time I checked about 5 months ago the prices were slighly lower in Argentina than the US, but in the $3,000 range. And as far as I can tell as of now, farmland in neighboring Uruguay, which is much more stable politically, is going for $4,000 an acre, give or take. Not all of Cresud's holdings are farmland, but on the whole, their portfolio should be worth $500 per acre.

Also, Cresud gets essentially the same end prices for its crops (minus a hefty export tax) as farmers in the US. But even with the export tax, the returns are still good because prices had gone up so much. The risk is that the tax sticks even when prices fall, but it appears the strike has dented Cristina Kirchner's government, so the situation is more promising than it appeared in the past.

I hope that helps a little bit. The assumption priced into Cresud at the moment is essentially that the land will be unprofitable for the foreseeable future. $165 per acre is lunch money for two weeks. Cresud is not totally insulated from the craziness that is the Argentinian economy (it has an interest in a bank and shopping centers), but I think the pessimism is priced in at this point. I think the comparison with 2002 is interesting in that regard.

Take care,

Andrew
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