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RE: #43835...

my prediction <...> came true that 9 days off between starts would affect Cliff Lee...

most scouts say that it's difficult to control balls up in the strike zone if you're too strong from too many days off between starts...


So, tonyromo, did you also predict that Cain would get shelled tonight too? The similiarities are remarkable...

Cliff Lee
Sep 30 vs LAA: 7IP 0ER 0BB 8K
Oct 6 (+6 days) vs TAM: 7IP 1ER 0BB 10K
Oct 12 (+6 days) vs TAM: 9IP 1ER 0BB 11K
Oct 18 (+6 days) vs NYY: 8IP 0ER 1BB 13K
Oct 27 (+9 days) vs SFO: 4.2IP 6ER 1BB 7K

Matt Cain
Oct 1 vs SDG: 4IP 6ER 1BB 4K
Oct 8 (+7 days) vs ATL: 6.2IP 0ER 2BB 6K
Oct 19 (+9 days!) vs PHI: 7IP 0ER 3BB 5K
Oct 28 (+9 days!) vs TEX:7.2IP 0ER 2BB 2K


So which is it, tonyromo, is Cain really better than Lee or is your theory just bunk? 'Cause Cain has disproved it twice now.

--Rod
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<So which is it, tonyromo, is Cain really better than Lee or is your theory just bunk? 'Cause Cain has disproved it twice now.>


If the theory is that ALL pitchers will suffer a negative performance after too many days off, then it is disproved.

However, if it is that some pitchers will suffer negatively while some will not, then it becomes a matter of pinpointing the individual differences. Bad days happen to everyone during the season. They have many causes from illness to injury, to poor mechanics, bad luck, bad weather, overwork, underwork or having personal problems on your mind.

As one moves through the rounds of playoffs, the pressure gets far greater. Like the difference between getting through the long 162 game season and surviving each round of playoffs, the pitchers get dramatically thrown off of their regular season schedule. When you "know" that you will get the ball every 5th day, you can arrange your workouts, game prep and overall living habits like clockwork. Most of that gets disrupted in the playoffs while the pressure is increased significantly.

Lee does not appear to be impacted by the pressure. However, 9 days off seems to have caused him problems. The fact that Cain did very well with the same 9 days off does not mean that this factor is irrelevant.

We haven't even touched on the bullpen guys. Many of them are used to getting into 4-5 games every week and now they too can go a week without getting into any games. It seems like it would be very easy to lose your edge under those circumstances, regardless of how many bullpen sessions you throw. It drives home the point that the regular season and the post season are tremendously different animals. The skill sets that get you through the long season often do not come into play in the playoffs. A 1 for 20 streak is quite common for most players during the season. Yet one of them during the post season can get you permanently labeled Mr. May as HOFer Dave Winfield found out. Conversely a red hot streak in the fall with the cameras focused on you can get you labeled Mr. October. One title is a whole lot nicer to live with than the other.


B
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Rod, for every set of stats you can find someone (Cain) who does not fit the profile...

here is data for the probable Cy Young winner in NL, Roy Halladay ...

Halladay...last start in NLDS (10/6), 1st in NLCS (10/16)...10 days

IP...7.0
H...8
R...4
ER..4
ERA...5.14

his ERA is over double from regular season from 2.44 to 5.14
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...THIS was your prediction?

#43719... "Cliff Lee Factor...he's going to open series on 9 days rest,it would have been better for Rangers if Lee beat Yanks in 7th game and then pitched in WS on proper rest..."

Weaksauce. You made no prediction whatsoever that Lee would pitch badly or averagely or even worse! Way to go out on a limb there and say that a pitcher who currently had a 0.75 ERA might do worse (for whatever reason)... gee, ya think?

So unless I missed another post, I think that you need to stop using the word "prediction" so loosely.

--Rod
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