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Author: dlbuffy Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 46837  
Subject: Re: Oil = Tulips? Date: 10/7/2004 11:00 PM
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Hey Wayne and Newbie,
Since I made that post, I have been wishing I had a few minutes to do some research and write a comprehensive thought.

First off, I am not talking stocks in oil companies. That is not what is scaring me. What I am starting to hear in the wind (radio and such) is the inclings of a rush to oil futures and other esoteric things. It seems there is a begining of a mind set that with everything else being down, oil is where the money is to be made. There seems to be a band wagon starting....and more people are talking like they don't want to be left behind.

Secondly, I was not comparing tulips (the plant) to oil (the fossil fuel). The comparison was between the starts of the buzz I am picking up and the stories of how that buzz got out of control in tulips. And that was what it was, a hysteria that everyone just had to be in one. While there may have always been some speculation in futures, it was usually left to companies to figure out, now I am hearing about traders getting involved. That is the sign that we may be in for a ride.

Before you say it can't happen again, think about telco's, then think about internet, then think about genetics. It has happened to some extent with all of them...and the prices got way out of hand compared to the actual businesses.

So again, I am not putting down any company, or stock. I own KMP myself. What I am worried about is all the tricky ways that a Future could be traded and re-traded, pushing that price into the stratosphere and having nothing to do with the actual barrell of oil. Once those prices become inflated, then the refiners will have to pay that cost...and eventually us.

Is oil a limited resource...yes it is. I am not arguing against that. But all the stuff that is happening right now seems to be a perfect storm...Russia's supply is iffy, Nigeria's supply is iffy, Saudi may not have all it says it does, costs are going up, reserves are down, etc., etc. All of these things are scary in and of themselves. The problem is that now we will see all the vultures swoop in to make some money off the volitility. That very action could cause even more volitility making the swing in price very large.

Buffy (who hopes that makes the discussion a little clearer...)
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