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Hi CK,

In essence I agree with you, however my own working of a SWR is around 2.5% depending on my allocation and a not overly optimistic estimate of future results (leaving plenty of potential upside). This makes the multiple more like 40 times spending rather than 25 times. Though you're correct things can always change and it is by no means exact or a science, that is too big a difference of sum of money to ignore and just take the party line of 25 x budget. To do that would give me an entirely false goal and lead me to believe I will independent way before that is actually true.


Here's my take on SWRs: I don't really care!

Why? I'm saving as much as I possibly can right now, and what I hope to do is downshift rather than retire outright and maybe even continue saving money into the FIRE fund from odd jobs and freelance writing. I don't know what the economy will do over the next 10-20 years. I don't know what *I'm* going to do over the next 10 years, let alone the 50+ years before I die. I'm slowly shifting my asset allocation because I'm getting older, but I'm not going to worry about the minutae of SWRs. It's a guideline. That's all.

There's a reason why my portfolio is a Couch Potato portfolio. I'd rather spend most of my time living my life rather than waste so much time and energy trying to pin certainty on something that's inherently uncertain.

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