Hi Mike,

Now you just need to make a reasonable judgment that nothing fundamentally different is happening to the company in the next few years. That is a whole ton easier than trying to estimate earnings, backing out depreciation and one-time events, estimating CapEx and discount rates and terminal growth rates and all that other stuff.

Looks like when I said "assess future cash flows" that you, and Denny and BMW took it to mean doing DCF calculations. I apologize if I misled you all.

I was referring to assessing future cash flows in the wider sense -- understanding the extent of a company's competitive advantage, whether and for how long it would continue, and how well management translates into cash for investors. I submit that this is what you are really doing when you say that all is needed is a reasonable judgment that nothing will be fundamentally different the next few years (that for very large ships they'll maintain the same course). Where we might part is in our opinion of the degree of the skill and effort it takes to make this reasonable judgment.

- Bill