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Author: NorthCarolinaKen Big red star, 1000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 38  
Subject: Re: Accumulating Date: 6/5/2003 3:55 PM
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Hi Paul,

Glad to see your note. I thought I was on this board all by myself.
:-)

Everything with the telecoms has slowed down, not just outsourcing. IT tech is also slow all of which has hit the Indian firms as well but later and not as hard.

I agree that the current mood in the country with high unemployment in the tech sector is reflected in the INS posture. The INS has put a little squeeze on the tech companies. "How do you justify these foreign contractors when you have laid off so many citizens?" Although I have suffered a lot of pain here myself, I am not sympathetic with those views. When customers begin to order again, we will discover that we just don't have enough folks to do the work that we have to do. The Indians are a Godsend.

The fundamental issue in my view is ultimate customer demand. Why humans act in herds has always mystified me but all Enterprise level customers have reduced IT investment drastically as a group. This is the driver to the business issues in technology including those involving Wipro.

I think that spending has to return at some point. There is both a lot going on that they need to keep up with. The emergence of Voice over IP and MetroNets are only a couple. There installed base is becomming seriously obsolete. All companies have a long list of projects with very high return on investment. Meanwhile there is a massive wall of money that is building up with nowhere to go. When things go back to normal I have no clue. The "if" to me is a no brainer.

The good news in all of this is that this herd driven parismony has taken tech stocks down in price. Wipro was one of the last to be hit. With my investment philosophy, this is the opportunity to invest. Once normal times return, it will be too late.

Wipro passes all the fundamental analysis with flying colors. In addition, revenue has been growing right through this recession. Is it a business I would like to own? Absolutely. Is it selling at an acceptable price? My work says yes.

Will the valuation levels hold here? I don't know. Once I make a buy decision, I dollar cost average until I have bought my predetermined stake. In this case, there is so much emotion with Indian outsourcing that I put a stop loss in at my pain point, $18 which has held well. I added to my stake this week.

Ken
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