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Author: Dwdonhoff Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76418  
Subject: Re: Hi gang... wow!!! Date: 9/17/2013 12:58 PM
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Hi Ray,

A 50/50 asset allocation has 50% in the S&P500 and 50% in US Treasuries. That's your "reserves" right there, that 50% in treasuries
OK, what's the worst drawdown on that blend from '73 to present?

IUL account: $586,000
Why do you ignore the actual run numbers?
IUL = $769,585

If we go crazy-wild low-risk: 25/75. 25% S&P500 and 75% in 10-yr T-bills
OK, what's the worst drawdown on that blend from '73 to present?

Can't just ignore historical drawdowns in a comparison where one option has none by guarantee.
=====
PSUE

You keep saying that but I haven't seen any real calculations. For stocks and bonds, I can find lots of calculations of various scenarios on the web, in addition to what Ray has provided.
I keep pointing out simple ways to account for the risk of forced liquidation during drawdowns, and Ray keeps avoiding them, and ignoring the real IUL projections provided.

I'm busy in a real daytime gig, but I don't ignore & obfuscate the facts.

Ray's retired with discretion... yet the dodging appears intentional. Might lead to wonder why...

Can you point me to similar calculations for IUL's?
I provided an illustration designed for growth performance over 40 years, using an assumed average rate that hit in 95% of all rolling 25 year periods.

Ideally, I would like to see Monte Carlo calculations showing various start and end dates.
That might be somewhat interesting, I don't have those. Monte Carlo calculations wouldn't tell much unless we could also plug in actuarial data form the overall casualty & insurance industry to try to approximate the likelihoods and degrees of catastrophic events, and their correlation with market drawdowns.

I definitely don't have that... but I know its significant. Significant enough when considering that *all* capital prior to reaching retirement counts *AS* retirement investing.

Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner
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