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Author: Dwdonhoff Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75381  
Subject: Re: Hi gang... wow!!! Date: 9/16/2013 7:56 PM
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Hi Ray,

I checked the Illustration at 4 different dates 10 years apart, and every one computed as an annual gain of 8.8%.
Yep.... 8.76 to be exact. As I explained upthread, that's the 95% percentile average return on all rolling 25 year periods on an index blend used for this particular IUL.

35% DJIA Index
35% Barclays Capital US Aggregate Bond Index
20% EURO STOXX 50 Index
10% Russell 2000 Index

They don't show any years where the return is zero, nor any years where the return is 12%. Yet we know from the historical data that 25% of the annual returns are < 0% (and therefore would be floored at 0%) and 45% of the annual returns are > 12% (and therefore would be capped at 12%)
They're simply illustrating a projection at the 95th percentile blended average annual return.

If you want to, you can rebuild their blend & apply historical data to go like/like... *OR* you could use the 95th percentile return on all the S&P rolling 25 year averages.

In order to do a like-to-like comparison, you'd have to compare their illustration with a S&P500 B&H spreadsheet with a fixed 10.8% annual return. Or 9.2% for a 60/40 asset allocation.
What's the deepest drawdown on the 60/40 blend?

Dave
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