Hi Rocky,A recent sign I've seen that autos might be getting interesting was anarticle that Wilbur Ross was starting to buy up bankrupt parts mfgrs.He put together International Steel from bankrupt steelmakers. Mostlyhis style is buying bank debt, I think - ie the most senior securities,not common stocks. On steel, he was active a couple of years beforethe steel industry started to look appealing for common stock buying,and of course there were external factors driving steel demand higher.So I'll figure a couple of years at least might be an ok wait periodbefore getting serious.Arbitrarily I've set car sales at 65 pct of prior peak as safe enoughtrough indicator. We aren't there yet. And also, for parts companies,I think there are a lot of cash outlay costs that've been capitalizedon the strength of having a supplier relationship with one of the bigthree. One company I follow, for instance, capitalized the trainingof their workforce. Many companies capitalize product development.If sales drop by 33 pct, there should be some writedowns in fairness.In any case, there will be implicit writedowns which eventually willbe taken into account by some analysts. Just yesterday an analystreport on one auto company revised their estimate down from approxbook value, to 90 pct of a reduced book value after a hypotheticalwritedown of the value of a division the company is trying to sellwith difficulty. In all, a 20 pct reduction in the target pricewhich is being recommended. I don't use brokerage target pricesbut like the raw data which is presented, and the business insightin the reports. But also, as an indication of pessimism trough,it is meaningful that at least one analyst of one company is nowtaking a proactive bearish stance. More needed before it's a crowd.When stuff like autos or forest products goes down, it can stay downfor quite a while (maybe permanently). I think there's lots of time.Years of opportunity, even if it's not always the same company whichis the opportunity. No reason to vary from super-cautious purchasermode. My biggest regrets do not come from the occasional blowouts,but rather from having paid too much for what was available cheaper.WS
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