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Author: TMFBreakerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
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Subject: Re: Earnings report Date: 2/17/2008 1:32 PM
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Hi, Sm!

The company looks like it's chugging along nicely. One thing kind of popped out at me from the press release though (excerpt here):

Business Outlook for Full Year 2008

Based on the current market and operating conditions, estimated production capacity expansion and forecasted customer demand, the Company’s PV module shipment and net revenue targets for the full year 2008 are as follows:

* PV module shipments in the estimated range of approximately 255 MW and 265 MW, which represents a 78.9% to 86.0% increase compared to 2007.
* Net revenues in the estimated range of approximately US$969 million and US$1,020 million, which represents a 74.1% to 83.3% increase compared to 2007.


The odd thing here is that YGE is implicitly forecasting a very low drop in the revenue per watt. This does not seem consistent with past market behavior, nor does it seem consistent with the oversupply of PV that is predicted to materialize late this year. Now I don't know if the oversupply will indeed come to pass, but I'm just looking askance at the revenue per watt projection.

Now.....with this in mind, what is a reasonable price to pay for the company? That's a tougher one. Personally, I'm just sticking with my current STP. Stronger company, more reasonable valuation IMO.

But, who can say? If YGE outperforms STP this year, I've seen stranger things happen over time. :)

Rob
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