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Author: ForceMajeure26 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 53  
Subject: Re: Hmmmmmm Date: 2/22/2009 12:19 PM
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Hi Steve,

I am becoming more skeptical of this whole Citadel thing as well. Something is certainly amiss, but I just do not understand what. Its kind of frustrating actually.
The agreement with the ICBC on the surface looks pretty good, but we do not know how much in terms of a % that the bank will keep for granting CSR the full A/R balance of the Safe City Project. I forget off the top of my head, how much that contract is worth (its RMB 210 million, but Im not sure the FOREX rate).
I would think they would need to disclose that in their annual report. Tim never answered my question about it on the AOB board (In HG), but we know he was at that Roth conference in California and the GG team did visit with the Company in China, so I was hoping that maybe he would post his thoughts. Perhaps you could ask on the GG boards Steve?

As for buying more shares, although the stock is crazy stupid cheap,I think the first thing to consider is how much you have already invested in the stock? Are you "overweight" already? Personally speaking, I bought my first shares at $16! but even then it sure looked cheap to me - I mean they are expected to do $2.17 a share in eps in 2009, and are on track for somewhere around $1.68 for 2008. I also added small amounts at 14, 10, and then the last at $4.28 on Nov 20. So, for my own point of view Im inclined to wait a bit since I have a full position. If it happens to drop below $3 (and I hope not!) on zero news whatsoever, then I would probably add another small amount.

But again, I just remain completely baffled at why the stock continues to tank. I wish I knew more... My only guesses are heavy shorting, hedge fund selling, general mistrust of anything China, or some kind of belief that the company wont be able to collect on it contracts? I really dont know...

I thought for sure the stock would bounce back some months ago when they announced the listing on the Dubai exchange, and potential customers in the middle east... I mean, who had deeper pockets than the oil barons??

I will definitely post here again if I come across anything useful..

Matt
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