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Author: anthonyms Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 68624  
Subject: Re: End of Year look at 3D printing stocks Date: 1/1/2014 1:43 AM
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Hi Tamhas - happy new year to you.

That's an interesting review with some impressive numbers. I would caution you against describing your growth in terms of CAGR when you have held for a matter of months. What I think you are trying to do is to calculate an annualised rate of return - which is ok but CAGR is usually reserved for the description of multi year compound growth calculations.

It sounds like we have a similar basket in the world of 3DP.

I currently hold:

1) ARCAM - showing a 159% gain from an entry price of $56.274 in July and makes up 15% of my 3DP portfolio

2) 3D Systems - is showing a gain of 160% from an average entry price of $35.671, which seems unusually similar but from 2 purchases one at $29 in post split value (but purchased pre-split) and another tranche bought at at $60 in August. This is my most overweight position making up 28% of my current 3DP portfolio valuation

3) Groupe Gorge - which is the most recent purchase at $22.55 giving a gain of 27% and representing 14.5% of my portfolio

4) Invivo - bought in September at $1.64 has reached a 40% gain and represents 12% of my portfolio

5) Stratasys - one of my first purchases (and most recent top ups) at an average of $81 (bought at $84, $66 and $98) as given me a gain of 66% and represents 18% of the 3DP portfolio

6) ExOne - which I bought at $39 originally with a top up at $63 in October giving an average purchase price of $44 and one of the lightest gains of 37% and represents 9% of my 3DP portfolio

7) Organovo - is the investment I am least convinced by (commercially and valuation wise) and I intend take profits and exit from in the near future. I bought recently at $7.50 and has risen 48%, it is my lowest weighting at only 3.5%

I had held Align for a short period, purchased at $44 and sold at a 15% profit as I needed the funds. I like the business and it is promising but does have a limit to its market potential. I also owned Sigma as a speculative play and sold out way to early for a 20% profit - this one I am happy staying out of for now as it is pure vapourware.

I am not in Voxeljet and am happy with not being in at this price which is no more attractive than Exone, ARCAM or SSYS/DDD. I would love to be in EOS if it were to list and I am considering Camtek if I can figure it out. I also follow Cimatron and Dassault Systems but I just don't find the lack of pure play exposure interesting.

Other New Paradigm big bets I have made this year outside 3DP include:

Solarcity purchased at an average of $33.7 has risen by 68%
Audiocodes purchased at $6.69 and risen by 6%
Mazor Robotics purchased at $16 and showing a 22% gain
Clean Energy Fuels purchased at $12.27 with a 5% gain
Marathon Patents purchased at $5.7 gives a 10% gain
Noah purchase at 18.25 has given me a 10% loss

Other big bets I continue to hold from previous years of possible interest to NPI and Fools are:
CREE
EMC
GE
AIG
Whole Foods
Tibco
Ceva
NetApp
International Rectifier
Check Point

Most of these are up this year - especially Check Point, Whole Foods and AIG.

Positions I exited this year at a decent profit (20%+) were high yield stocks like GDF Suez and Medical Properties which I do want to participate in but will await the impact of tapering before making any moves.

Happy new year and good luck to all in 2014.

Ant
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