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His conclusions presumably come from some mix of top level quantitative rules of thumb and direct (and very insightful) close observation of specific firms he knows well.

May be a little. But, it’s worth noting that Buffett repeatedly advises most investors to buy the S&P 500 and cautions that most investors, including most investment professionals, can’t best it with any regularity. So, when he talks about stocks being fully/fairly valued I think there’s a good chance that he’s talking about “the market” and not IBM.

It’s doubtful that he would be so imprecise with his language if he actually means, “a handful of stocks that Berkshire owns” rather “the market” when he says he thinks that stocks are fairly priced.

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