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Author: Calabogie Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 36686  
Subject: Re: LNGT ****** Date: 10/17/2007 8:47 AM
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Hiya Flyspeck40 and welcome to the board! Hope you're enjoying it.

I just wanted to post my couple of pennies about your great pick!

First, congratulations! You hit the jackpot!

Second I would suggest selling at least half if not 3/4 of your position right away. I'm not saying it's not going to keep going but you've got a great gain right now and this would be a great time to grab some cash and stick it in the bank!

Third, I'm somewhat of a fundamentals guy. I use FA (fundamentals analysis) along with TA (technical analysis) in my trading. I may be able to explain the drop you saw and I may also be able to explain why I think this stock will go back to sub-penny in the next month or two.

I AM NOT saying you made a bad pick so please don't think I'm trying to rain on your parade. I'm just throwing out my opinion. You can take it or leave it, up to you. I just want to give you another opinion and tell you what it's based on.

1) They did not get a contract. The PR release says, "The BrightStar(TM) laser technology was down-selected by a government panel following the panel's evaluation of 20 different competing laser technologies from 18 laser companies. The panel's evaluation and decision was made in part by Laser Energetics' report on this all solid-state Alexandrite laser and the technical advantages of this tunable laser technology over other lasers."

That simply means that it was put on a list. 'down-selected' in Army terms means they put it on a list with other companies for possible evaluation in the future. They did not make the DoD list which I believe is what caused the drop you were referring to. DoD is above the Army.

2) They haven't even proven the concept. The release also states, "As a result of this decision, Laser Energetics anticipates a near term contract to produce a proof-of-concept laser that meets a set of specific requirements for this 'remote sensing' application."

They point out that they haven't won a contract but that they hope to win one to 'produce a proof-of-concept laser' so the Army can see what they can do given the proper funding. A 'proof-of-concept' is something I've done in my career a number of times. It basically amounts to selling an 'idea' to the government or another company then having them pay you to prove that the 'idea' will work. Its success rate is about 9-10 percent for all such plans.

3) They have 0 SEC filings. This is not uncommon on the OTC stocks but what it means to you is that you have no idea what is really going on in that company other than what is annouced via PR release. That's not always a bad thing but it leaves you with almost no information other than what the company wants you to hear. Rarely a good thing.

4) This stock started out at a dollar and dropped from there. Look at the history of the stock and you will see that it's been down a long time and there's usually a reason for that.

Having said all of that, hanging on to some of it is probably a good idea! Grab 75% or so for profit and leave the remaining 25% invested. In 5-10 years (if it DOES work 10 years is more likely) you may find you're a millionaire!

Just remember this. If you keep only 1000 shares and the company DOES get a DoD or Army contract the stock will most likely hit double digits, split a few times and hit double digits again. That would mean you would have triple or more the number of shares at a substantially higher share-price!

I could be wrong and I hope I am. It's just that I've always been careful to make sure I get my profits set aside FIRST. Any time I haven't done that (and there are a number of times) I've always lost almost all of the money I had in that trade.

Hope it does well for you and you and your husband can buy a "house in the Hamptons" along with RayBH and I when we hit it big! Haven't gotten there yet but there's always tomorrow. lol

Calabogie
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