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Author: lukascranac Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 479  
Subject: Re: DDD Put Date: 1/28/2013 12:59 PM
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Hmm.. Where Jeff's come from? :) I am Luke.

Anyway,

first of all if you do own the amount of shares covering your put option and you let it expire the broker might sell your shares on March 16. (I am assuming you won't wait till then) but hypothetically at that point you will want to buy back your shares ASAP. because you don't want to be out of the stock as a long term investor (I am guessing you are a long term investor in this)

So lets assume you just sell to close the option in the next few days taking your nice profit.

And then you are looking for entry at the bottom. Now you called the top pretty well, you will have to call the bottom just as well. calling tops and bottoms is hard so don't get too carried away.

Options are tricky. they have time value, volatility value. Best time to go long with call options is when the stock has been depressed for a long period of time (and we expect rebound). that way there is minimum volatility value in them. for example your put option must have been a good buy bc this stock is roaring up like a rocket, so no one thought it would drop. but exactly for that reason even if it drops there will be a lot of traders thinking it will go back up soon. and that is priced into the call options. if the stock price remains depressed for a long time this hope evaporates and the call option's price goes down.

if the stock price goes down to $55 and you immediately buy you might pay for volatility. and if afterwards the stock remains around $55 for a month that volatility along with time value will decay. and your investment will shrink even though the stock price is not changing.

so if you really want to buy shares this way in the future you have to set your future price target and do the math. e.g.: the January 2015 Calls will go for $10. You will buy them bc you believe the stock will be at least $65 in January 2015. So strike plus premium is your minimum target price and you have to firmly believe in it in order to trigger!

also if you decide to play with options please check on events affecting the fundamentals. an earnings report can set a very different trend for 3-6 months out on a stock. you might not want to be a part of that.

and lastly an advice: options are a great tool to lose all your invested capital in no time!
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