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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76418  
Subject: Re: Hi gang... wow!!! Date: 9/17/2013 4:43 PM
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Hmmm, one more question and them I'm out to hit some golfs. It's basically the question that Einstein once posed to himself, about one of his theories.
To be fair, I'll ask it of myself, too.

Dave: What would it take to convince you that your opinion of IUL vs. B&H is wrong? Is there *anything* that would cause you to change your mind? Is there any example, any set of numbers or whatever, which if you saw it, you'd say, "Oops, what I thought was incorrect." ?

Because if there isn't any such thing, then discussion is pointless.

Ray: Same question.
A from Ray: If I saw a run where the same real-world (or even realistic alternate history) events showed that an IUL has a higher final value, over a long-term period of time. (Since IULs are stated to be a long-term investment.) If I saw that I'd begin to question my opinion that B&H is better than IUL. Then I would want to know the statistic likelihood of these events happening. If it's extremely rare or extremely unlikly, then this counter-example would have a low weight. "Rare" would be something in the 1% range.

Monte-carlo would be fine. I don't expect you to run a monte-carlo analysis of an IUL, but do you have a link of any such analysis? An analysis please, not a mere assertion.
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