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Author: seldom958 Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 151  
Subject: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 7/31/2012 8:35 PM
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On July 26 I bot 6,000 shrs of beaten down SVU for $1.85, including commission cost.

Well, today it closed @ $2.47 for a gain of 34% in only three trading days!!!
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Author: RHinCT Big red star, 1000 posts Ticker Guide SC1 Red Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 123 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 8/1/2012 9:54 AM
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So are you going to take the money and run, or hang on to it?

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Author: seldom958 Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 124 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 8/1/2012 2:35 PM
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I definitley am going to hang on and would buy more if I had the money.

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Author: rtichy Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Global Fool Motley Fool One Everlasting Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 125 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 8/1/2012 10:19 PM
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wrong answer! take the money and happily watch SVU for 6 months...

Look back in Dec./Jan and decide again if you want to be in this. I don't think you'll miss out on much if this company is really going to turn around.

Everything that has happened in the last 3 days of news suggests the company is flailing around, so there is huge uncertainty in what happens next.

Hate to be a downer, but I just don't see where you are giving up a lot of upside from here in the next 6 months, so why be exposed to SVU's downside, which is bad?

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Author: seldom958 Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 127 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/22/2012 4:08 PM
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I did buy more on Oct 19.

Some @ $2.12 and more "after hours" at $2.22.

A few minutes ago it was trading @ $3.11 That's a 47% & 40% gain in ONE TRADiNG DAY!!

Question; do I hang on for more gain????

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Author: leaderoftheback Three stars, 500 posts CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 128 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/22/2012 4:30 PM
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take some profit, leave some.

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Author: seldom958 Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 129 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/22/2012 7:37 PM
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Thank you for the advice. I did sell some today.

I bought "after hours" on Oct 19 because an advisory on Oct 19 said they are "maintaining our BUY rating on the stock."

And since they did not issue a "sell" today, I am looking into buying more "after hours" today.

Have to hurry. Only 25 minutes left.

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Author: seldom958 Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 130 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/22/2012 8:02 PM
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I did buy "after hours" @ 7:39pm.

Bot 2,000 shares; 1810 shrs @ $3.10 and 290 shrs @ $3.09. Total including commission $6,205.10.

SVU closed @ $3.17 today but went down "after hours."

Will hang on until advisory Guru says to sell.

Had no money, so bot on margin. Pay 6 & 3/4% interest.

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Author: leaderoftheback Three stars, 500 posts CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 131 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/24/2012 6:30 PM
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cruisin' for a bruisin'

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Author: seldom958 Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 132 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/25/2012 11:47 AM
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You may be right, but here is why I'm hanging on;

Latest from my guru on Oct 19;

"We stated in our July 12 review that the company had retained Goldman Sachs and
Greenhill & Co. to review strategic alternatives. Investors bid up the stock because the company
stated in the latest report that it “has received a number of indications of interest and is in active
dialogue with several parties.” It also reiterated plans to pay down debt and invest in technology,
maintenance, new Save-A-Lot stores, and store remodels. The company will generate enough cash
flow from operations to fund approximately $1 billion worth of debt reductions and capital
expenditures. SVU is not out of the woods, yet it is making good progress. While we expect more
volatility, we are maintaining our BUY rating on the stock."

Besides, it's costing me only about $1.15/day to hang on and I believe it will be over in a few days or weeks.

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Author: SubGuy One star, 50 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 133 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/25/2012 7:33 PM
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Dude,
You are up by thousands of dollars. Take some profits and at least pay off your margin loan. Consider selling it all and be happy that you made a quick, sizable profit.

You are taking a huge risk - you could end up with ZERO in a short time if things don't go the way your guru says they should.

Just sayin'

SubGuy

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Author: seldom958 Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 134 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/25/2012 8:35 PM
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Thanks for the advice, but here's my situation;

As info, this guru recommended SVU on Dec 16, 2011 when it was @ $7.22 and said it would reach $14 within 2 years. I bought but it soon tanked and I sold on Jun 4 for a loss of $4,882.80.

He maintained it was still a buy so waiting my 30 days, I bot again on Jul 26 and sold eight days later for a gain of $4,316.98 (but still down $565.82).

Bot again on Aug 17 and sold Oct 22 for $1396.10 gain. So
now ahead $830.28. And, am sitting on unrealized gains of $8,970!

So, the guru says it still is a “buy,” and yes I will hang on until the guru says sell. I make my best money on a beaten down stocks like SVU that the guru continues to say, “buy.”

And best of all, the guru recommends just one undervalued stock a month. Seldom holds for more than two years. So he is easy to follow. I live on the west coast and went to the Money Show in Chicago earlier this year just to hear the guru speak. I wanted to ask if I should put all my money in just his stocks. He said no! “Not sufficient diversification.”

I was impressed.

Here’s my guru;
https://www.specialsituationsurvey.com/newsletters/sss/sss_s...

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Author: leaderoftheback Three stars, 500 posts CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 135 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/25/2012 8:37 PM
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yeah, what SubGuy said.

I think you may end up with less than zero, since you bought on margin. If it were such a sure thing, it'd be flying a lot higher. Plenty of people plenty smarter than us are ready to watch it go...mostly because of the debt. Part of the bull case is that Supervalu owns much real estate, but the old Sears/Kmart bankruptcy informs us as to what that's really worth...and what does SVU really own if they owe 6B?

Take your money off the table. Or don't, because you might be right. Lord knows I don't know. But I have been burned plenty and I never buy on margin; I hope you never find out why.

Best to you. Keep us posted on how it's going. I'm cheering for you.

-Randy

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Author: leaderoftheback Three stars, 500 posts CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 136 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/25/2012 8:53 PM
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by the way, did the guru tell you to sell on June 4? Or was it still "a buy?"

Some minor editing of your explanation puts you in a very deep hole (had you not taken the loss and re-bought). It begs the question: how good is this guru's advice? If I take guru's advice now, I could win big. If I took it at $14, I lost my hinder for good.

Depending on how you figger, he's half right maybe. That would not make me feel better if I'd ridden it from $14 to 3...especially since Cerberus might ride in and pay $3-4.50 for it; a handsome profit for you, but it's no guarantee.

Not many will take on 6B debt when there is little cash and little cash flow. It's not like they can saddle SVU with debt and take special dividends...no room in that debt saddle already...little leverage in a leveraged buyout.

and for clarity- your current position has an unrealized gain of 9G?

-R

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Author: seldom958 Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 137 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/25/2012 8:59 PM
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Thanks, subguy.

But I read way back in the 1970s that the "optimum" way to invest in stocks is to margin up to 20%. Would have to be a stock market disaster to be hurt.

Have been on margin ever since. Margin expense is deductible!

It has allowed more diversification.

I "Try" to keep it below 20%. But had a few margin calls early in the game, but have had none for more than 20 yrs.

If I can borrow margin money @ 6 & 3/4% interest and make 7%, 9%, !5%, 90%, etc., it's fun trying and keeps my mind nimble - I hope!

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Author: seldom958 Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 138 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/25/2012 10:50 PM
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No, he did not say sell. He's said "buy" in all five of his reviews since Dec 16, 2011, even as the stock fell.

I did not buy more until July 26 when SVU fell below $3 and then below $2.

SVU does have good cash flow per his Oct 19 review; "The company will generate enough cash flow from operations to fund approximately $1 billion worth of debt reductions and capital expenditures."

I would think there would either be a buy out, or a "sell" reco within the next two to three weeks. So don't expect to be hurt, and then realize my approx $9,00 gain. - or close to it.

But we'll see.

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Author: leaderoftheback Three stars, 500 posts CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 139 of 151
Subject: Re: Holy Smoke!!! Date: 10/26/2012 9:01 AM
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well I certainly appreciate the "nimble mind" aspect of what you do. We should all do math every day!

Best of luck with it.

-Randy

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