Homer, Two quotes from your own profile provide an answer to your question. "One test is worth a thousand expert opinions." ”For all to know that quality is more important than quantity”. In other words, is your question really "VAIPX vs. VBTLX" or maybe something else? What are you trying to accomplish with any of your investment choices, and are they the only --or best-- ways of doing that?You can try to play the prediction game --or ask others to do it for you -- and change your allocations accordingly. Or you can identify your risks and then defend against them. This isn't to say that you will be successful in identifying all of them or in defending against them. But which path would you rather bet on? That anyone while be able to forecast with better than coin-flip accuracy what will happen, or that physical and financial disasters can be anticipated and mitigated through preparation? In yet further words, you're asking a low-level tactical question, and at this stage in your planning, you ought to be reviewing your high-level strategy. If that's still a "Go", then drop down to the next level. "Every battle is won or lost before it is ever fought."(Sun Tsu)Charlie
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