No. of Recommendations: 3

When and if the evidence comes in, and eventually points (as I think it will) to bin Laden, we will end up facing one of two scenarios:

1) The Taleban refuses to take action, denying the guilt. The U.S. builds a case for erradication at any cost; i.e. "bin Laden has now demonstrated an unrestrained ability to act. If he ever gets weapons of mass destruction, he will use them".

If the U.S. is smart, they will use combined forces from the rest of the world, to take him out. Not unprecedented, Bush's father did the same thing (sort of) against Sadam. Best approach is to make the world see this as an action against a criminal act against civilization.

2)And most likely - The Taleban takes him into custody, and says that it will punish him in accordance to Islamic law. Probably, at least initially, they will not surrender him, because they are fundimentalists and that is very contrary to their beliefs. Probably, they will find the world has very little patience for this approach. Does the opinion of the industrial world mean anything to them? Probably less than the prospect of a unified military action. Will they allow themselves and their families to be killed defending him. Hmmm, interesting crisis of faith here...

I don't think he will let himself be taken alive (although his cowardice might run deeper than I think). I think he will either be dead, or in a U.S. prison within a month. But, I also think some of this is what he intended. If he can get the Taleban to say "no" to the U.S. even briefly, he turns this into a confrontation between the U.S. and Islam. This is what he intended all along. He goes out as a martyr, having stuck the most severe blow against the ultimate enemy.

The solution to the Osama bin Laden's is not nukes, but business deals. This is a war about culture. I think he came to the conclusion he was losing. He's commiting suicide. He's trying to use us as the mechanism for doing it.

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