howard.the stumble into your avaya position was rather entertaining to say the least.i should amplify the fact that i do not advocate nor implement a buy and hold strategy unless special circumstances exist like with texas industries. i have made several round trips into avaya notes in the last couple years; actually three if you count my current position. you are correct; their financials are a mess and the ipo getting put off is a potential disaster to the say the least.my entry points into avaya each time was based on a scalping methodology algo that i have programmed. the neat thing about bond price action is that buys and sells are extremely transparent so you can really get a clear gauge of liquidity along with supply and demand both on the buy and sell side if you have the proper analytical tools.so each time i put a position on with avaya was when i was alerted by my algo to do so, but basically for a scalp. i am pretty much looking to exit my current holding in avaya, once this latest leg loses some steam. currently as you know, there is a good sized bid here for avaya notes in the $95 handle. a 5% discount to par is the highest these bonds have traded for quite along time now.
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