However, I've read (and been told by posters here) that Intrade is very accurate.Intrade has only been around since 1999. So at most it has predicted 3 Presidential elections. That's like calling a rookie a hall of famer because he goes 3 for 3 in his first game.Yes it has an accurate history, but it has a brief history. Not enough time for black swans to occur. Just remember, the intrade of the day said Dewey beat Truman.JLC
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