Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif

No. of Recommendations: 0
HR said:
Sorry. I said I'd shut up. I will. I think. It's a sickness.

No! Now I think we are getting somewhere. So, how would you decide of the 0.02% loss at 100X odds is a reasonable bet (given variance and all that, I don't know those terms) since you have the ability to walk away at any time? Or do you only bet on things with a positive expectation? So if it were positive 0.02% would that make a difference? Isn't the variance so large it doesn't matter if there is a very slim preference for or against?

All this is about you the bettor, of course, not the casino. I fully understand they will always win. But maybe not against me.

Let's say the gun you mention has 72 chambers. If the doomed man had a choice between two guns, on with 3 bullets in the chamber and another with 4, would he really be that better off to pick the 3 bullet gun? If I did 10 tries with each gun, is it really a good bet to guess that the 4 bullet gun is safer? In a lot of tries, yes, but not in a few. If you were to pay me cash, lots of it, to use the 4 bullet gun rather than the 3 bullet gun, assuming I had to use one or the other, I would do it for the right amount. That's the key, what is the right amount?

The fact still remains, in nature's statistical machine, microscopic physics, if I want to guess the speed of an individual molecule picked from a million molecules, I would be just as likely to guess right picking the <average value + 1> as I would the <average
value>. In my language, the most likely value will equal the expectation value only after a huge number of samples. It's impossible to guess the most likely value correctly if I only pick 10 molecules. Expectation value is no help in picking the most likely result of a small number of trials. Is this what you mean by large variance? I think if I understood exactly what you mean by variance, I could talk about this better. Sorry about that.

Rick