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<<Yet despite the positive monetary, cyclical, and technical underpinnings, bearish rumblings and concerns about the economy (domestic and global) continue to be heard in the financial press. In recent weeks we've even witnessed a rash of newsletter writers forecasting a stock market crash this fall (which has yet to happen). This type of worry is typical of major market bottoms and always happens during the 10-year cycle bottom of the fourth year of the decade (see 1994, 1984, 1974, et al).

In just about every survey I've come across in recent weeks, everyone seems to have misgivings about the state of the economy. Some respected analysts have even forecast a recession for 2005, claiming that the year following a presidential election typically sees a decline in economic and stock market performance. (Actually, this isn't even close to being true as there have been several notable exceptions to this "rule" in the past few decades). As we've previously discussed, the fifth year of the decade has *always* been bullish for the stock market with not one single exception in the past 120 years.>>
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