I agree. I've been struggling to find out whether Intrade is "predictive" and whether it can be manipulated. However, I've read (and been told by posters here) that Intrade is very accurate. Granted, if it's manipulated, then that goes out the window.However, what is noteworthy and real is that the odds did decrease, indicating a drop in confidence in Obama's chances after the debate. I couldn't imagine that manipulation was withdrawn or greatly attentuated the day after the 1st debate.You would also expect people who are in it to make money to push the price back down if it's overvalued.
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