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Author: leaderoftheback Three stars, 500 posts CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 140  
Subject: Re: The Death of MF Boards Date: 11/14/2012 7:25 PM
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I agree totally about these boards, OJ. Consider QLIK, a RB pick with lots of CAPS players weighing in. Yet, there is not even a board started, only the RB board. I find that totally bizarre.

Anyhoo, about INFN, I first have to agree with Duke. This is probably not the time to sell INFN. It is the time to (cautiously) accumulate. Of course, that could have been safely said anywhere between a share price of here and the $22 it was at 5 years ago. Doesn't matter what we think as much as it matters what the market thinks. But the market doesn't think, it reacts.

We all hear the word "certainty" a lot these days. Well, the big money is looking for it, too. They aren't finding any in INFN. If it stays below $5 for long, it may trigger more selling by funds that can't hold stocks that cost less than $5 (though there aren't too many of those that buy small caps). In the final analysis, funds don't buy much that isn't going up (playing momentum), or has recently gone up (window dressing). My bet is that Duke will tell you it's part of the game. At $4.65 we are taking risk...a big risk. No risk, no reward. That's all it is and doesn't really have anything to do with the company, per se.

If the share price sticks here, it will have formed a double bottom, signalling support. If it falls below, especially in an up market, which today was decidedly not; we'd have to see where the new bottom is. That would be the time to buy a 2nd 3rd if we believe in the company (and there is no reason not to right now- they've performed as promised). Otherwise, it's likely to stay in a $4.65 to $5.50 trading range until the next earnings report. If the earnings report is outstanding, the stock will pop. Do not buy more on the pop! Put in a limit order wherever in the range you'd like to gamble. It will likely drop back to $5.50 to $6. Then you can buy another 3rd with confidence (but without a promise). It's the way it is.

For a demo on the previous paragraph, look at ZIP. Great report and a POP. I put my limit order in for $6.15. It may stop going down when it hits $6.20 and I won't own it (yet). Then I can decide if I want to buy it as it's going up, or just wait to see the next report. If next report is "meh," don't be surprised to see ZIP drop below $6. If the report is another blockbuster, you'll see it gather some steam. And of course, all of that is subject to surprises from competitors, real or imagined.

That's the way I'm playing INFN...I bought in at 4.65 a couple of weeks ago. If it falls below, I'll look for the new bottom and buy more. I like the company and its prospects.

-Randy
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