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Author: blondydog Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1219  
Subject: Re: Baffling Downsizing Date: 1/10/2000 9:52 AM
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I agree with you in some respects on Hasbro. The stock price is too low, for starters, just based on current information. Hasbro's biggest competitor is Mattel which sells at almost 500 times earnings. Hasbro trades at 12 times earnings which is modest in ANY industry. The electronic entertainment industry is also typically traded at much higher EPS ratios. The big kid on the block there is EA and they trade at 45 times earnings.

With all of the great products Hasbro produces (especially POKEMON which somehow got 4kids a ridiculous stock price but did nothing for Hasbro which makes everything and anything Pokemon in North America) its kind of amazing that this stock is so often overlooked. I know that the tech/computer arena has been the focus of most indie investors but Hasbro has exposure there too with one of the biggest electronic entertainment divisions around.

As to your questions behind the closing of the MicroProse facility in NC and the impact of that decision on the future. Outsourcing really is the way to go for computer games. Only it isn't really outsourcing in the truest sense of the word. Companies like EA cut their teeth on publishing games from smaller developers that couldn't get the dough to put a product out themselves. They have some of their own in house design teams like the EA Sports label but the majority of their projects are undertaken by external publishers (in some cases those publishers are owned by EA but they are still driven by their own internal management processes and are not in the same building with the bulk of EA's management team).

MicroProse has long been known as a developer of top rate simulation and strategy games. Computer games were a niche market for a long time. Only in the last 5 years has this medium begun to come of age. Unfortunately the mass market is not a great place for simulation or strategy. The games that sell well follow a proven formula which is 90% action 10% content. Simulation and strategy games just don't bring enough to the table for most gamers. Either that or the learning curve is too high to attempt in a limited amount of time that most serious individuals could hope to devote to gaming.

As for your opinion on online gaming, I think it too is misguided. Ultima Online has up until now been the measuring stick for this genre of games. It is managed by DSI which is an external entity from Origin (and from its owner EA). Origin created the product and then left it in DSI's hands. Asheron's Call, the critically acclaimed Microsoft product that directly competes with UO is built and maintained by Turbine in a contract with Microsoft. Everquest was developed by an independant publisher. I think you can see where I am going with this. There is really no need to have a large in house design team when you can avoid the difficulties that go along with managing that team by simply buying the finished product from somewhere else. EA was built on that principle and publishers like Gathering of Developers and EIDOS continue to pursue that type of business.

As for the 2200 jobs, from what I have read about the layoffs this was largely a product of Hasbro's policy aggressive acquisition. They simply had more people than they needed to perform the tasks at hand, or eliminated product lines that were not profitable enough. The market should have responded to the news by pushing up the stock price but it did not. Right now the stock is rated a buy or hold by most analysts so there is no logical reason for the dip in price in recent weeks. In fact the only news has been good news.

I doubled my position in Hasbro today and if the stock continues to slump I will buy again. This is a great company that has a history of putting out quality product and re-energizing the companies it acquires. Just several years ago MicroProse was seen as a publisher that had tarnished its reputation by releasing buggy games. Hasbro fixed that and streamlined the company, removing potentially unprofitable projects from the table. With its recent acquisition of Wizards of the Coast, Hasbro has a monopoly on the Collectible Card Game (notably Magic: The Gathering and of course the ever-elusive Pokemon) as well as on the best-selling pen & paper role-playing game ever made, Advanced Dungeons & Dragons. It has exclusive rights to all products for the next two Star Wars films, a surefire way to put money in its coffers. Hasbro had the best toy last Christmas with Elmo, the best toy this Christmas with Pikachu and has consistently been able to provide an adequate supply of its hottest products. I see no reason why this stock can't double in price if investors open their eyes. The sky is the limit with Hasbro.

blondydog
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