No. of Recommendations: 0
I am looking for the 30 year to hit 7% as my signal that the Market is nearing its low. That is not the same as a buy signal! The 30 year is over-priced. When the price breaks to the downside it might briefly touch 8% as panicked sellers dump.

At this point I'm not sure I expect the treasury curve to get out of its present inversion any time within the year. My reason being the supply distortions that result from treasury buybacks (and boost the 30 year price beyond anything you'll find in the other credit markets right now.) No, unless I were required under fiduciary resp. rules to hold 30 year treasuries, this probably wouldn't be a great time to buy. However, depending on your portfolio, it *might* be the time to start looking at more attractive parts of the yield curve. I can't predict what is going to happen anytime soon at the long end of the treasury curve. Wish I could.

No, I wouldn't be in a rush to buy now, but I *would* be looking closely at what happens in the next month or so, since I find myself wondering whether the "certainty" of more rate hikes to come isn't a repeat of past certainties.

At the street level, I'm seeing *less* inflation now than a month ago. Had dinner for two last night in the Theater District (Manhattan) for just over $50. Can't remember the last time *that* happened. In most of my food shopping it seems that there's little or no pricing power being exploited, maybe because the pricing power that "everyone" says is there just isn't materializing?

The econ reports over recent weeks are mixed, but I'm seeing at least as many signs that inflationary pressures remain as weak as they were through most of the 90s. Maybe the Fed's most recent hike *will* turn out to be the last one, considering how many "experts" seem to be saying it's just the beginning?

Print the post  


When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.