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Author: kelbon Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 21246  
Subject: Re: The Wheel of Fortune - Not Date: 9/20/2012 11:40 PM
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I am planning to go to 20% equities and 80% cash by the end of the month.


This is a very pessimistic view of things to come. Especially as you are dumping some good dividend stocks.

I can see going to cash in a higher interest-rate environment, but almost the best you can do with cash these days is stash it under the mattress, where invariably it will lose value in real terms.

Although there's lots that can go wrong in the next year, big market declines almost always take pretty much everyone by surprise. I don't think anyone would be surprised to see one over the next year, so ironically, it probably won't happen.

Presumably, you'll have tax implications too in fleeing the market. Yes, I would say that going to 80% cash is somewhere between panic and capitulation; perhaps closer to panic?

And then there's the problem of when to get back in again. Almost no one has the stomach to buy when equities are crashing and everyone around is panic selling.

I would sleep on it…

kelbon
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