No. of Recommendations: 0
I apologize if I sounded snarky. I had assumed that Knighted was referring to economic growth, rather than stock market performance. The impact on stock market performance of party in congress is not explored in depth; we have a few indications but I don't feel confident that they will play out to something useful at this point.

The overall data seems to say the next 4 years will be relatively better for the economy but is silent on the issue of whether this would help or hurt in the stock market. Further confusing the issue, it is hard to say whether Clinton and Obama should be grouped with Truman or with Eisenhower as moderates. After all, we are still living in a Reaganomics tax structure.

Overall, the experiment seems to have been disappointing and I am not really sure how to fix it. According to the literature on economic growth, the congress effect is in the same direction, but smaller, than the president effect. I suspect that if you take out the periods where one party controlled all three the pattern for the rest gets really noisy. It might be simpler to key off of the primitives, like tariff levels, education funding, tax structure, money supply, etc.
Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.