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Author: AdvocatusDiaboli Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 214543  
Subject: Re: bill gross, damages, Date: 10/3/2012 4:14 AM
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I believe that he was using his example of lack of some or most long-term memories as a way of describing an investment approach which voids the stated and unstated assumptions made by the many. The assumptions that he vacates are: the US will always have a reserve currency, it will always be able to fund its borrowings and it will never fall to the same fate as Greece. What he is disputing are the “givens” that others take as gospel. And I think he is right to be worried.


Market participants in aggregate always seem to suffer from a kind of "systemic stability bias".
They act from the presumption that there will be no systemic crackup, even if there is really good evidence there will be.
The best example for that is the real estate bubble in the US, where the SPX reached a new high in fall 2007, even as the wheels were already coming off the wagon in a very obvious fashion.
I still remember how weird it was witnesssing that.
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