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Author: tommurphy9 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 212912  
Subject: Re: 40% Overvalued Date: 10/8/2012 5:43 PM
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I believe that the broad US equity market is very overvalued.
But I don't own the broad US market.

Still, you've often said that any investor in equities should reasonably expect to suffer a 50% drawdown from time to time. Just taking ownership of Berkshire at its current valuation as an example, this would suggest that BRK is likely to drop to ~40% below its book value somewhere along the line. Is that correct?

Or would the 50% drawdown only be expected when valuations are higher than they are now for Berkshire?

I realize that anything is possible, including instantaneous destruction of all life on the planet by an asteroid, but even the great depression didn't see a 90% drop in the total value of the stock market.

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