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Author: jerryab Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 134228  
Subject: Re: Look where unemployment was supposed to be n Date: 10/6/2012 3:26 PM
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I believe this is where the Romney camp is getting the 5.4% unemployment projection (It's the January 2009 report from Obama's Council of Economic Advisers):

Maybe they ought to have read the bottom of Page 2 (from that same report). Looks like you failed to read it also. Again, not a surprise. The last couple sentences (bolded by me) are the real killer. So, the public was told--unambiguously--this was an estimated projection based on current historic info (but NOT based on the Great Depression):

'It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error. There is the obvious uncertainty that comes from modeling a hypothetical package rather than the final legislation passed by the Congress. But, there is the more fundamental uncertainty that comes with any estimate of the effects of a program. Our estimates of economic relationships and rules of thumb are derived from historical experience and so will not apply exactly in any given episode. Furthermore, the uncertainty is surely higher than normal now because the current recession is unusual both in its fundamental causes and its severity.'
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