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Author: 1Vagabond One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 19220  
Subject: Re: Retiring and Nervous!!!! Date: 1/6/2000 6:08 PM
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I can't believe that we have this many Fools on this board that still quote the Wise. And I also can't believe that there are Fools that read this board that think a return average of 10% is not doable. The F4 screen has an average return of 20% for 40 years. Will this continue? I don't know, but if a 20% return was what I wanted that is where I would put my money. I don't use the F4 screen. I want a better return then the 20%. I have done many times better then 20% for the last year. If anyone didn't better 20% for the last year, I would suggest you rethink your investment strategy.

TRRR started this thread wanting to know if a portfolio of $1M could support a withdrawal of $80K. I believe that I am the lonely voice in Foolsland that has said, “YES!” The thing about the constant $80K draw is that the rest of the portfolio also grows. Using the F4 20% return, in 5 years, he would have almost $2M and a withdrawal rate of 4.10%.

OOOOPPPPPPS....Just reread TRRR's post. I missed the most important thing about his message. TRRR wants $80K AFTER TAX MONEY. Sorry, I missed this. After seeing the light, I now believe that you will have a very tough time making this requirement. But, if Harry S. Dent is correct with 41000 Dow in 2008, your portfolio should double or triple this year so you will have to wait until next year to retire.<grin>

If I had your position, I would read and study the Fool. Get some of their books as well as others. Plan to move that $100K mutual funds and cash to a discount broker and start to invest FOOLISHLY.

TRRR – Hope all this helps.

Feeling somewhat Foolishly Stupid
Vagabond

PS: I hope that everyone is buying the Stock Market Fire Sale!!
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