I did the calculations longhand using year by year returns. The portfolio value I get on Dec 30 2010 is 47.4% of the initial portfolio value of $100 (in US$ of 2000).

So for an initial port of $1M. After 11 years of 4% AWR using a 3% annual inflation rate, we'd have $474,000 today (in year 2000 US dollars).

Somehow the first calculation is the accurate one. This is pretty scary indeed!

In nominal terms, we'd have $657,000 left today.

I used an initial portfolio value of $100 on Jan 1, 2000. I then subtracted $4.

I then multiplied that number by the REAL return of the portfolio per year.

Rinse and repeat 11 times.

Real returns of retirement port (Inflation @ 3%):

2000: -29
2001: -2
2002: -22
2003: 43
2004: 10
2005: 2
2006: 11
2007: 3
2008: -30
2009: 36
2010: 12