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I disagree with this. As Dr. B says repeatedly in TFPI, you can only determine a bubble in highsight.

Bull. Read Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller, which was written at the height of the bubble, which he clearly identified.

Anyone who'd bought put options on the NASDAQ at or around 5000 would have found himself in the Forbes 400 the next year. But no one did.

Just because you don't know anyone personally who made money doing this doesn't mean that no one did this. Warren Buffett made a lot of money on S&P 500 puts, and I'm sure that plenty of other people bet against the market as well.

I personally didn't bet against the market, but I sold all of my holdings in late 1999 when it became obvious things were getting out of hand. I'm glad that I did. I've been investing since January 1997, and I'm happy to say that I still haven't had a down year yet.
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