UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (24) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: MadCapitalist Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75540  
Subject: Re: Yes, you can time the market Date: 2/14/2005 6:16 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
I disagree with this. As Dr. B says repeatedly in TFPI, you can only determine a bubble in highsight.

Bull. Read Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller, which was written at the height of the bubble, which he clearly identified.

Anyone who'd bought put options on the NASDAQ at or around 5000 would have found himself in the Forbes 400 the next year. But no one did.

Just because you don't know anyone personally who made money doing this doesn't mean that no one did this. Warren Buffett made a lot of money on S&P 500 puts, and I'm sure that plenty of other people bet against the market as well.

I personally didn't bet against the market, but I sold all of my holdings in late 1999 when it became obvious things were getting out of hand. I'm glad that I did. I've been investing since January 1997, and I'm happy to say that I still haven't had a down year yet.
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (24) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

The Retire Early Home Page
Discussion on accelerating retirement day.
Post of the Day:
Value Hounds

Kate Spade's Wild Ride
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement