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I don't have a spreadsheet set up, but the basic calculation goes like this--

Suppose your bond fund pays a dividend of \$0.12/mo at 6.00% yield. That means it pays \$1.44/yr and has an NAV of \$24.00. If the yield goes to 6.50% and the dividend remains the same, the NAV must fall to \$22.15. That is a loss of 1.846/share or 7.69% of your investment.

If the same \$24.00 were invested in a CD at 2.5% for 12 mo, it would earn \$0.60.

So if interest rates do not rise after 12 mo your bond investment is worth \$25.44 or your CD investment is worth \$24.60.

If interest rates do rise after 12 mo your bond investment is worth \$23.59 while your CD investment is still worth \$24.60.

A spreadsheet can be set up so you can change the timing and the magnitude of all the interest rate changes and explore what makes most sense. Of course the right anwser depends on correctly guessing when interest rates will change and by how much, but some of the differences will be small; others will be large.

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