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Author: alchook Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75531  
Subject: Re: Allocation Advice Date: 10/22/2013 10:50 AM
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I don't question your second sentence for a second, but not one person at tmf (or anywhere else) told me to get out of all of my holdings in exactly March of 2000, nor did anybody tell me at the time that they were getting out of all their holdings.

Joel,

Why would they have? The concept is ludicrous.

The NASDAQ hit an all time high of 5000 in March of 2000. By the end of the month it had suffered roughly a 10% correction, not unexpected and certainly no reason to head for the hills.

Of course, it was grossly over valued at the time, so getting out would have made sense for anyone smart enough to realize that. The question, though, is what anyone smart enough to realize the market was over valued was doing holding stocks in the first place.

The NASDAQ had hit 3000 in November of 1999. Three years later it would be half that. So if you were smart enough to realize the market was over valued in march of 2000, why wouldn't you realize it was 100% over valued 4 months earlier?

Anyone who claims to have been smart enough to sell in March of 2000 is telling you, "Sure, I knew the market was ridiculously over priced in November. In fact, I decided that if it rose another 67% in the next 4 months I would get out for sure."
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